WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS 6/16/24
Last week the bulls stepped in as expected. We came into the week with the long bias and although I couldn’t be on stream and capitalizing on the moves they did play out to the upside. We are in a ROLLOVER PERIOD!!! So the chart below will be the NQM2024 (June Expiration), everything moving forward after that will be on the NQU2024 (September Expiration) chart. We had our inflation numbers pre market Wednesday that helped continue the push to the upside and through the all time highs without looking back. JPOW and the Fed decided, as expected to leave rates unchanged. They hinted at improvements in the economy and inflation, but still would not be solid on a rate cut decision quite yet. In spite of the in line numbers and nothing concrete moving forward, the markets took this as a bullish scenario and ran us up into the blue sky highs.
Although Friday’s volume in the June contract was still higher than September, it is common practice to start shifting into the new front month the week prior to expiration. As the CME data shows below:
With that being said lets start to use that information to see what our week ahead holds. The chart below is the NQ1! continuous contract on Tradingview . This will plot all the contracts on the same chart without adjusting the data. The current front month was rolled last week which will show a large gap from the M to the U contract. This will help us on some levels later on, as the last roll I played some of the gap fills from the roll which played out nicely. This seems irrelevant for now but it may and will likely be useful for us moving forward in the new U contract.
You can see my old plotted levels, including that fib extension target that I had drawn up for our upside last week. Also note that now we have very limited levels to work with so intraday price action will be very important for this week ahead until we gather more information. Fundamental data and news will play a larger roll this week as far as establishing direction.
When it comes to data this week here are our red folder events:
The only true “red folders” are going to be Tuesday Retail Sales and Thursday Building Permits. Everything else here is the Fed speakers now allowed to speak as their rate decision was made and quiet period over. Although their information will be redundant be mindful of these speakers as something that they say can and will trigger some algos. Just be prepared for some whacky action around those times.
PLEASE NOTE THAT MARKETS WILL BE OBSERVING JUNETEENTH AND BE CLOSED/SHORTENED HOURS ON WEDNESDAY! NO TRADING!!!!!
Also note that Friday is Triple Witching. Instead of me regurgitating my idea of what it is here is a breakdown that could help you understand what that means.
All you need to know is that it is happening and that you should be aware that volume and volatility will be affected.
Some important information of note:
With markets pushing into fear while also pushing into all time highs and beyond, I would expect a continuation to the upside for the short term. I think many believe that this market is overbought and it will correct, but when the majority are fearful the bulls take control. Is this a hard and fast rule, no, but do not be shocked if that is the case this week.
No real earnings that move us this week, but here is who reports:
Overall we have a week ahead with limited technical information. Below are the levels I see as important coming into the week.
I am going to call the 19940 level as my bullish/bearish line in the sand for open tomorrow. Yes the exact level looks down to the 19926 level, however I think that the true breakout is that whole round number. Overhead resistance is being created here at the time of writing this at the all time high level of 19896.25. Above that is anybodi’s guess and I would use some sort of ATR or Fib extension to figure that area out. I am eyeballing that all mighty 20,000 level before any correction takes place. TO the downside if the bears hold us below the 926 level, I see support levels at 19842, 19760.75 and if that gives up the gap fill down to 19610.25. Gun to my head I would wait to see if that 20k hits before seeing those lower levels come in but that 19760 level will be a major bounce play area if it does play this week.
Overall trade smart, look for your confluences and do not get married to a bias up at these levels. Things can change in an instant with any major news. A holiday short week and this could start to drift in a direction and maintain that. Be reactive, secure your profits and look to take note of key levels and major buy/sell orders sitting on the book.
CONFLUENCE=CONFIDENCE
AS ALWAYS STAY BULLISH ON CAFFEINATION! OUR 20% OFF FATHER’S DAY CODE IS VALID UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT SO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT TODAY!
USE CODE: DAD20
Watch me live everyday 0830x1100 CST on TRADECASTER!!!! Click the link and get a 7 day free trail and also enjoy my stream for free once the trial is done!!!
This week my stream will run Monday normal schedule, and then likely will be sporadically throughout the week.
