WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS 6/9/24
This will be the first of my weekly analysis writeups to be posted here. I have been sharing it as a Google doc and I think now is as good a time as any to move the education to where it belongs. I constantly strive to provide you with better data in an easy to access setting and this move makes sense. Moving forward check this page frequently as I will be posting more and more information right here, including, but not limited to this weekly analysis.
With that being said, lets get to it!
Last week I mentioned that I would not be surprised at all if we hit off on all time highs, and what do you know here we are again. The Fed quiet period helped keep price grinding higher as the week went along concluding with a NFP number that really did not move the needle in either direction. Monday started the week with a solid morning selling that was completely canceled out that afternoon session. Tuesday’s session was a sideways, choppy action day that broke out again in the afternoon rallying to highs of Monday. This buying continued as we cracked all time highs and continued on Wednesday. Thursday saw price hanging at the highs, chopping around while waiting for the NFP number Friday. NFP whipped the highs and sold off pre market then became a non factor. Price still is deciding where it wants to go from here. Weak highs were created in the session which could lead to them remaining until this coming FOMC rate decision. The other Ape in the room is GME and Roaring Kitty Live Stream. This seemed to have markets waiting on his every move and may have also muted other trading. Everyone has their opinions on the stream and maybe a future post is in order, but for now lets leave that for another day.
This week we are opening right along the uptrend created last week. Each test of this trend has led to a bounce. As I write this up at 1100 CST, we are slightly below the trend but price has remained sideways since the open. It appears that the 19000 level will be very important for our open tomorrow at the bell and we will likely see some reaction around there. Since we have only been in this price zone for a short period of time the levels may be less reactive and can break at any moment. Understanding that the market will be waiting for the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday could keep price action and volatility low leading into the number.
Data Releases to pay attention to this week:
The big day will be Wednesday. We will have inflation/CPI before the opening bell which will have an algo reaction and could provide some insight into further decisions with rates. The 1300 Rate decision will be the bigger mover. It is priced in as a non event, no cut, no hike. The words that JPOW chooses at the presser will likely pick our direction for the remainder of the week. Make sure you note that Bank of Canada and the ECB both cut rates in their previous decision, do we feel that the FED may be a follower or hold strong with our rates. Higher for longer does seem warranted, however with the election approaching how long will they wait to make the cut as a move politically. (FED may say they are independent but you decide)
Earnings for the week:
Nothing of note to watch for the NQ.
News Headlines:
Mag 7 Charts to watch:
NVDA:
The 10:1 stock split went down after market on Friday so don’t be shocked when you see price down around 120 in the morning. I think this gives the NVDA some room to breathe and healthy pullbacks will lead to more buying pressure. The levels will be the same, however prices will be adjusted so be aware. Short term bears may step in and that could help us make a move on Monday in the NQ as the correlation is tightest to NVDA until now.
MSFT:
As the NQ rested at highs as did MSFT’s rally. The 412 zone acted as solid support last week and rallied up to current levels. The chance of a pullback in NVDA could assist in MSFT also pushing lower until Wednesday, providing buyers an opportunity at lower levels. Watch MSFT to gain some more of the lead this week with the NVDA split maybe causing a slight disconnect from the NQ short term. This is what I will watch to see which of the 2 names will lead. The levels below will play a big role.
AAPL:
Has been bullish and continues to show that it does have 200 in sights. We have entered a major liquidity zone, so I would not be surprised by a pullback however 200 is close and the strength could be enough to carry AAPL there and maybe beyond. AAPL and NVDA have been acting inversely correlated intraday and only this past week did they both catch a bid together. NQ and AAPL have also not been working together and I dont see that changing until NVDA and MSFT take a back seat. AAPL still bullish, until it is not.
Levels to watch NQ:
19040 will be my bullish/bearish line in the sand for our open tomorrow and going into the week. It shows some solid support down to 19020. This all of course has the 19000 even level as the big round psychological level looming which will play a role. Overhead the bulls have the all time highs at 19155 and my fib extension target from the previous pullback can have us up into 19400 (19398.50 if you want to be precise). I think that level is eventual and if the Fed cuts in a surprise it could run there, however with everything coming in as expected the initial pop up and roll over for me is the more likely scenario. If we do start to get sellers entering the market I do see down into 18844 as a level of interest and the buyers have good reason to step up there and at least defend it short term. As I always mention, barring any drastic new information, or surprise cut/hike this week may be more digestion of the previous run up and sideways action that may only offer a handful of really good trades all week. Most of them likely will come later on after the FOMC, but don’t get caught off guard early as markets may give you 1 or 2 good ones prior to the “news”.
Since this is the first one of these on this platform I would love your feedback and input on what I should include on each of these writeups. I only do the NQ for now as that is what I trade. I can include the ES and anything else that you may want that will help guide your week. You can apply much of this logic across most sectors so use the broad ideas to keep yourself honed in on the market action. Use the form below as an easy way to reach out. Signing up will also get you these sent to your email weekly, discounts and future product released, if you click the box.
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Have a great trading week and remember, Confluence = Confidence!
