Weekly Market Analysis 6/23/24
Another week has come and gone and rollover is now complete. Last week had a bit of everything, a midweek holiday, triple witching and all time highs to name a few. Lets take a quick look at what developed last week and use this information to help guide us forward this week. Monday we opened up and moved straight upside. There were no real pullbacks to enter longs and anyone attempting to fade the highs got run over time and time again. Tuesday kept us in that range with a lack of participants looking to move the market in either direction ahead of the holiday on Wednesday. Although the futures market was open, it closed early and volume was nonexistent. Overnight however, buyers stepped up and pushed us up and through the all time highs and grabbed whatever liquidity was left pre market. We failed that 20270 breakout level and then the sellers poured in during market hours, pushing the NQ down to the 20,000 level. With triple witching on Friday we got what was expected, chop and rebalancing of the final orders left moving over to the front contracts. Overall looking at the price action, we had an impulsive move to the upside Monday, found some orders and then slowly recovered the entire move setting us back to that 20,000 zone where decisions need to be made.
The chart above shows the previous weeks price action, the chart below shows us the entire NQU2024 contract. With limited time in this contract as the front month we need as much information as possible to make good decisions moving into this week.
The white line at the highs is now the all time highs, this high was created in the overnight/pre market session and markets normally do not like this, which will be something to note. Below is a purple box where support has developed. This is the gap between the previous contract and the current front month. The gap does not have to get filled, although historically they tend to get filled, so I will eyeball that as a magnet. There was a range prior to the Monday breakout which we are now accepting into (20,000-19,760.75). This is all the price information that we have looking back at these levels, lets check in on what else could drive markets this week.
Below are the red folder events this week:
Looks like we are pretty light on the red folder events this week, being Thursday and Friday. There are plenty of 2 Star events that could move things around including Fed speakers and New Home Sales on Wednesday at 0900 CST.
Earnings season is winding down here is who reports this week:
News Headlines for the Weekend:
Some Individual Names to Watch:
NVDA: Since even prior to the split NVDA was a buy only name. Last week that all changed. We gapped up as you can see and proceeded to roll over Thursday and Friday. Coming into this week the entire chip sector will be on watch to see if we will get a rebound as this being just a correction or will there be sellers continuing to push us downside. My thoughts on NVDA is that its a buy until otherwise stated. There is no real driving news that will push this down much more, its more affordable at these price points for more participation and it is driving this market to these highs. If you see the 120 level I would call that a nice bounce point for the next leg to the upside.
MSFT: As you can see above MSFT has caught a bid since June began and it does not appear that run is done. I would say all signs point to further breakouts in this name. We are continuing to make new highs, the Daily all the way down to the minute charts all point to higher. This name has been around the block and will benefit from the rest of the market still rallying. I would be a bull unless the low below 428 breaks.
AAPL: I cannot do a Mag 7 writeup and not include AAPL. I mentioned in a past writeup that the 220 level would be a nice target for AAPL if it catches any sort of bid up through the 198 level. As you can see above it ran up into there and has since faded off. The OPENAI partnership is still in the works and it is unsure if it will be good or bad for sales moving forward. It looks like it may find some support here at 206, however its not very strong and could easily give up and roll right back to the 198 zone. A bounce down at 198 is reasonable to expect and could assist the NQ if it is also at a key zone at the same time.
AMZN: This chart is quite bullish as well. It is running into a key zone here and could give a bit of rejection before giving a nice volume break to the upside. Amazon is everywhere, you cannot avoid them if you tried. They appear to be in a nice uptrend and if this breaks up then some of the other names will prop up as well and that will be bullish for the NQ. That 180 level would be interesting if it comes back there but the break up seems to be the play here.
As we open this week I have noticed as I write this up from a small getaway with family, we have some selling coming in around the 20000 level. I mentioned on my Instagram last week that the top felt capitulatory and could lead to some selling, which sort of already started playing out. I am not comfortable saying that the top is in and we are going to continue to roll over, especially after seeing the bullishness in some of the mag 7 names. I know NVDA pulled back but it needed that breather if it wanted to keep moving upside. MSFT and AMZN are in bull mode and AAPL is doing its own thing. The potential partnership with OPENAI had mixed reviews and is still not in if it will be a positive or negative for sales.
LEVELS FOR THIS WEEK:
Here you can see above I believe that the Bullish/Bearish level will be the 19,982.50 level. I could call it 20,000 but lets use the more precise number. I have a point just below there at 19,926.75 that has acted as support and will still be until it proves to give up. That being said I think over 20,000 we head to 20,068, 20,178.50, and then through that pushes us back to the all time high levels. If the 19,926 level gives up then we have 19,842.50 then the gap fill becomes important below that (19760-19610)
STREAM SCHEDULE THIS WEEK WILL BE OFF AGAIN BUT BACK TO NORMAL SOON!
I have family in town and we are away from home base until Tuesday. I apologize for the inconvenience however I will be back and better than ever starting back WEDNESDAY!!!!
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