Weekly Analysis 9/1/2024
Labor Day Weekend is upon us again. It feels as if this year has flown by and the unofficial end to the summer season is here. While everyone enjoys their 3 day weekend here in the US, we are here prepping for another trading week! Looking back to last week and the anticipated earnings of NVDA which has come and gone, and we are basically back to the same zone once again. We saw price hold below the 19610 level and was never able to reclaim the higher level of 19,760. The pressure peaked with the selloff from NVDA earnings after market close on Wednesday and reopen of the Futures market that night. From that point we came right back into this zone and have seen a consistent seller stepping in to keep us down below. This is telling that the downside is limited and the next break above could lead to a clean, volume driven move once the seller gives up. September is here, the rate decision is slated for the 18th and more participants should start to be back in the markets. Lets look ahead to what this week has in store.
Since rollover and the past 3 weeks in particular this zone has been what we have been working. Eye above the red box for longs and below for shorts.
Looking ahead we always start with our important data releases for the week:
NFP week is here. Each day has some data so there should be some good movement. As always be aware of the times and manage positions accordingly.
Earnings for the week:
With NVDA earnings over there are not many highly anticipated names reporting. It is always good to just be aware of who reports and what types of sector they are in depending on what you trade.
Headlines moving Markets:
NFP Friday, Labor Day weekend with the equities markets closed and futures running a shortened day.
$BA is having some rough times and the space issues are continuing, watch this for a potential impact on Boeing on market open Tuesday.
Is $GME mayhem about to break out again? Some settlement issues from last week, lets see!
More of the same. Ever increasing tensions. Watch for more to come.
Seems like a lot of the other countries are experiencing down turns as we come into the busier trading months. Will they lead us down or can the US remain resilient.
Pushing into greed as we ramp up September trading. I would like to see markets get extended and this push over to the Extreme Greed area before the rate decision.
We have crept up to 69% chance of the 25bps cut this meeting. Still pricing in 100% chance of a cut.
HERE ARE MY NQ LEVELS TO WATCH FOR THE WEEK:
Overall we remain in the same area that the past few weeks have been. There is no need to draw out the analysis as nothing has changed.
ABOVE 19,610 should be bullish/ neutral up to 19,760. Over 19,760 should lead us up to all time highs potentially prior to or leading into the rate decision. If the 19,610 level holds again the sellers could push us back down again to last weeks low of 19,140. Be mindful of the data released each day and of course what the NFP will tell us.
Streaming Schedule for the Week Ahead:
Monday LABOR DAY: NO STREAM
Tuesday 0830-1100 CST
Wednesday 0830-1100 CST
Thursday 0830-1100 CST
Friday: 0830-1100 CST
Stream can be found here TRADECASTER
and on YOUTUBE
As always if you have any questions or comments about this writeup, my trading, the coffee or just want to say hi, please fill out the form below and leave some comments! Everything I share here is for your benefit, if you would like me to add any information or analyze some other charts please let me know as I will only add something if I am trading it otherwise.
