Weekly Analysis 9/8/2024
In a data heavy week it seems the markets sought out lower price points last week into and including NFP. I have been talking about the 19,610 level for weeks and have repeated that everything below that level would push us sellside and a hold above and acceptance above 19,760 would lead to all time highs. As you can see from the chart below that 610 level acted as a sell Monday (holiday) and into Tuesday. The selling pressure did not let off much as all bounces from the 18,839 zone up to the 19,155 zone were sold. NFP came in with a slight miss and that paired with the negative pressure on the week led us even lower. Breaking down and holding below 18,544 into the close of the week. Overall the data and talk from the fed still says cuts are in order. Overall this is still a good place for buyers to step back in and up to the Sept 18 FOMC meeting. Now as always lets look ahead into the data moving markets this week.
Purple zone got sold early and you can see the flush, base, flush clean momentum to the downside all week long.
Looking ahead we always start with our important data releases for the week:
CPI and PPI this week will be on watch as always. Other than those 2 just be mindful of the times of the other releases and watch for the algo movements if you are in, or eyeing, a position.
Earnings for the week:
Not playing anything with it but will be fun to watch the chatter and action into $GME earnings on Tuesday. RK had a tweet again and could be ready for some more meme mania.
Headlines moving Markets:
Overall a light news weekend, which I would almost expect something to come down during the week. If not that data CPI, PPI will be moving the markets this week. Next week is that first big FOMC meeting so a quiet period will be enabled as well.
Here is a depiction of the fear greed index in a historical context. Although on the fearful side, we have been more neutral the past few weeks waiting for the FOMC cuts or not.
HERE ARE MY NQ LEVELS TO WATCH FOR THE WEEK:
With last weeks selloff into and after the NFP number, I would like to see what happens at and around the 18,544 level. I do see this currently as the bullish/bearish line in the sand for the week. As you can see from the chart below we are sitting right around that level now. Friday we never made it down below 18,300 and on open here Sunday, we gapped up and pressed into the 544 zone. Overall some of the selling on Friday may need to be cleaned up before another leg down does come in. If we do get solid CPI and PPI numbers we could start to see the bulls take control. We would have up to and into that zone around 19,610 if the data points to more than 25bps. Overall its a reactive week, low data, high importance. Expect Monday and Tuesday to be somewhat sideways and lead into Wednesday’s CPI number that could ignite some directionality for the remainder of the week.
Streaming Schedule for the Week Ahead:
Monday 0830-1100 CST
Tuesday 0830-1100 CST
Wednesday 0830-1100 CST
Thursday 0830-1100 CST
Friday: 0830-1100 CST
Stream can be found here TRADECASTER
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