Weekly Analysis 8/18/2024
Last week we saw a steady bullishness as we had anticipated with the “extreme fear” that set in the week prior. We got the anticipated slower inside price action Monday with no data and anticipation for PPI and CPI releases. Both of those numbers came in as a good sign for a rate cut in September which led to a continued upside pressure starting at open on Tuesday and continued after the unemployment numbers came out Thursday, which also signaled strength in the market and increased that September cut narrative. My ultimate high of the week that I spoke about was the 19,610 area and we tagged off on that level Friday, selling came in but it was quickly bid back up closing the week right at the key level. As we move into this week and beyond, this zone will be pivotal as I mentioned, anything above this zone leads to new all time highs but what will get us there and how long will it take? Let’s check the data for this week.
19,610 clearly the reactive area as you can see above. This 30 min chart shows momentum plays winning last week.
Looking ahead we start with our important data releases for the week:
Very light data week this coming week. We already know what the FOMC said so the minutes will just be algo moving and something to note if you are in a position. All the talking feds could move us however I do not think many of them will have much different to say than JPOW at the last FOMC meeting. Watch that Jobless number Thursday and note that Powell speaks early Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Earnings for the week:
Earnings season is winding down and not many names I want to watch. As a whole, I like to just be aware of who reports, what it tells us about the economy in broad terms. $TGT is a name to watch for consumer spending and really the only one I will peek in to watch.
Headlines moving Markets:
Seems like investors may be concerned about NVDA downside into earnings later this month and are hedging a bit more this go around. Last time they didn't want to miss the pump this time watching the downside risk a bit more.
Overall these two proxy wars are not going away and the longer they drag on the more they will expect the US to continue to support and become active participants. Watch as they wither heat up more or if by some miracle just agree to terms and move on. If Iran continues to be involved then this will drag on and one day we may be looking to have an event that moves our markets as a result.
Markets still fearful continues to push my mind that a grinding low volume bullishness continues. Until we actually push up over those all time highs will the greed step in and at that point my outlook will start to trust the shorts more. I wouldn't be surprised that the timing coincides with the September 18th rate decision. Keep an eye on this throughout the week as we continue to push up.
HERE ARE MY NQ LEVELS TO WATCH FOR THE WEEK:
As I mentioned above 19,610 is my bullish/bearish line in the sand as we move through the week. If we can hold and push up 19,760 is first area where some sellers may want to step up but a break of that pushes us up to 19,841. Each step of the way we could push up to each key point and sell but the 20,000 is going to be a magnet so I would expect that to be another key area as we approach. Size on the book has been pulling us in a direction then continuing through and less of a front run to sell at so we will watch what size comes in around here. Breaking that could have us at 20,270 by the Jobless claims number and if we have more good news then onward and upward. Watch the downside on a rejection of 610 as we see at the moment down to 19,398 would be a strong area I would like to see hold. Barring any surprise news or info I lean to the bullish side for this week.
Streaming Schedule for the Week Ahead:
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Monday 0830-1100 CST
Tuesday 0830-0930 CST
Wednesday 0830-1100 CST
Thursday 0830-1100 CST
Friday: 0830-1100 CST
Stream can be found here TRADECASTER
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