Weekly Market Outlook
Hello Everyone! It has been some time since I last wrote and for that I am sorry. Things have been ever changing in our life and now, as things start to settle in, the trading routine needs to start coming back into the mix!
First things first. Let this be a lesson to you as a trader, or as someone who is interested in trading. Life will change, priorities will shift and you will need to adapt. When it comes to trading, sometimes you need to allow other things to remain front and center or your ability to trade clear minded will diminish exponentially.
TO BE A SUCESSFUL TRADER YOU NEED TO HAVE A WINNING ROUTINE AND A PLAN OF ATTACK FOR THE MARKETS. RANDOM, UNINTENTIONAL MOVES, MAY ALLOW YOU TO GET LUCKY HERE AND THERE, BUT LONG TERM, WILL BE YOUR DEMISE.
Now that we got that little bit of wisdom out of the way lets get back to what has made us successful, our routine.
Here is my outlook for the week of 3/2/2025:
WELCOME TO MARCH!!!! A NEW MONTH, WITH A FRESH START AND NEW VOLATILITY.
If you have been here before, welcome back, if you are new here, we take a look back at the previous trading week (or more in this case) in order to provide context to our upcoming trading week. So grab yourself a SHORT SQUEEZE ESPRESSO and let’s start.
Much of last year and beyond, the market seemed to be positioning completely on whether the FED was going to cut, how many times and how much. Since the return of President Trump and him keeping the public well informed via tweets and press releases we have moved back into a market less driven solely on FED releases and market data and more on geopolitics, trade deals and the ever present tweet. Volatility intraday has increased as moves seem to be more pronounced (checking the daily ATR in NQ has shown a steady rise since December 2024), all while we really have been range bound. See the below image of the NQ Daily chart.
Daily Price Chart on Top. Volume, CVD and the red line at the bottom is our ATR.
As I mentioned above, the data points have been of very little influence. Most of our common points of information have been coming in line or close with little surprises. The fact of the matter is Trump wants the Fed to cut and quickly, while the Fed and JPOW have their own agenda. Agree or disagree, it seems that the common thought among trader sentiment is that we will be holding rates as is for the time being. (See the Fedwatch tool below)
Fedwatch tool from the CME group showing 93% of traders positioning for a hold in rates for March. Click the image to get more details from the CME group.
Since we are talking data points, I will always be aware of the releases, especially if I am actively in a position or looking to get into one. Normally I will watch even the 2 star events on the Trading Economics calendar, for this week I will focus on the big ticket 3 Star, red folder events. We have ISM PMI Monday, ISM Services PMI Wednesday and the almighty NFP and unemployment on Friday. Throw in a Fed Powell Speech on Friday to cap off the week. I normally look to be flat by 1100 CST Friday so that is of less importance to me but I still need to know its coming.
Red Folder/ 3 Star Data releases for the first week of March. Pay attention to the initial jobless claims as well on Thursday 0730 CST (2 star event).
Last week we had some very important names reporting earnings with the main focus on NVDA. The reaction to their call was a mixed bag. NVDA had solid numbers but their guides came in as disappointing to investors. Selling came in Thursday and continued into the open on Friday. This directly coincided with out NQ selloff during that same timeframe. The recovery came in on Friday which also lined up with the bottom of our NQ range. So is this more technical based or actually investors being “fearful” in NVDA and their future. Look above to the Daily NQ chart for the range referenced here. Overall, me personally, I am bullish NVDA and this dip after earnings into support gave investors some good opportunities to reload on more shares.
NVDA 30 min chart from last week.
Keeping in theme of earnings, here are the most anticipated earnings reports coming for this week:
Plenty of names on this chart and as an equities trader you may find opportunity here. As a futures trader, I have no real interest in any of these names individually, however, broad market sentiment indications could lead to some movement for me in certain situations. Names like Costco and Target show me where the retail spending is going.
Now for what is really moving markets for us this coming week, the HEADLINES:
How many times have I read this tweet over the past few weeks? If this time it is reality, then that could potentially lead to peace negotiations going better than they have been.
A heated exchange at the Oval Office ended with Zelenskiy being booted from the White House. No deal for peace in sight at the moment.
After getting kicked from the White House, Zelenskiy headed to London where he met with the EU leaders. Wait and see how this headline progresses through the week.
Your daily pre trade routine should include a quick search to find out what is happening in the Tariff world. This just might be the largest driver of the markets for the near term and possibly the entirety of Trumps Presidency.
NFP always whips us around but we need to watch and see where we are leading into the release. Position accordingly.
If you are a crypto trader or are just interested in the markets this is big news for the bulls in the crowd. DJT pumping these names with a little Truth Social post. Watch those BTC futures contracts, XRP, SOL and ADA. I would also be watching the Altcoin space for some action as well.
Fear and Greed Index:
Love to see it. EXTREME FEAR. We approached major longer term consolidation lows and the market participants are showing their fearful behaviors again. This is not a buy signal on its own but I sure do like to fade the uniformed majority. When others are fearful, be greedy!
Do your own due diligence, but watch how the market reacts to this information, time and time again.
Looking ahead to my levels for this week on the NQ:
If you couldn’t tell from my fear/greed section I do like this week to potentially set up to be bullish. I trade NQ and ES however trade your levels as you see fit. As do my weekly analysis, I like to show what could happen on both sides (NQ) so I am prepared for whatever the market decides this week. As day traders we look to capture smaller parts of the big moves intraday.
As I write this the market has opened on a gap to the upside above the level I have at 20,983. I found this to be a solid level going back to November (election day). The gap is not huge and could be filled before recovering back to the upside, although markets like to gap and go when it is above key structures so do not bank on the fill. Should we continue high side I like the 21,200ish zone for some reaction and this week to push into the 21,340 level. I really like that level to be short from last week and would be a very key level of interest if we approach it to the upside this week. A break above that level will have the markets off to the races but need to watch the headlines and the NFP numbers that could line up with the timing as we approach.
To the downside. Should we close this gap and continue to push lower, 20,666 is my first target lower. Below that the support at 20,500 will be a key battleground. If that breaks down then 20,000 even is in the cards.
We are all at the mercy of headline risk and should account for the volatility of that. To account for this, size down, and understand that no position is at all a guarantee.
Have a plan and also have a plan for your plan not going according to that plan!
30 min levels for this coming week on the NQ.
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I HAVE PAUSED ALL STREAMING STILL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE! I WILL BE BACK IN DUE TIME BUT I NEED TO REFOCUS IN ON THE PROCESS AND THIS IS PHASE 1!!! SEE YOU SOON IN THE MEANTIME PLAN YOUR TRADE, TRADE YOUR PLAN! DON’T DO DUMB $HIT!!!!
As always if you have any questions or comments about this writeup, my trading, the coffee or just want to say hi, please fill out the form below and leave some comments! Everything I share here is for your benefit, if you would like me to add any information or analyze some other charts please let me know as I will only add something if I am trading it otherwise.
Disclaimer: Trading and Investing is a highly personal venture and nothing I say here is advice for your specific situation. As always, consult a financial advisor or professional and be sure to do your own due diligence.
