Weekly Market Analysis 7/14/24
Welcome back to another weekly writeup, last week brought some much needed movement and some wild news to kick us off moving forward so lets get into it. First lets get it out of the way and be grateful that President Trump is okay after the assassination attempt on him at Saturday’s rally in Pennsylvania. As humans first, we hate to see the violence, but as traders we need to be actively relating all geo political events to how they affect the markets and what could come moving forward. A difficult part of trading is understanding that in times of tragedy and despair, come times of opportunity and you will need to separate your personal feelings and emotions from the work you need to do on the charts to be successful. With that out of the way lets look back at what we saw with price last week. As expected with JPOW speaking in Washington early in the week we would see continued consolidation or price to not make many changes in direction leading up to CPI. Come CPI on Thursday you can see we got some dramatic selling on the whole buy the rumor sell the news adage. CPI came in better than expected and price gave a nice wick off high and began to sell off. Our major support level below was the 20,371 level which was the previous all time high that was broken prior to this uptrend. Friday brought us PPI which told the opposite story and, being at the major support level, gave us a wick bottom and another bounce to the upside. A mixed bag of information, a hint at a September rate cut and we have now come back into a more tradeable area moving ahead into this week.
Here are our key data releases for the week:
Not a heavy red folder week, but plenty of data to create opportunity. Monday JPOW back again spitting hot fire, likely with no hints in any direction the FED will be taking. Tuesday is Retail Sales and Wednesday is Building Permits. I do like the retail sales number as a indication of economic activity, however on the whole these events are nothing like the CPI and PPI and you should not expect the same types of reactions from them that we saw last week.
Earnings back into full swing, here are the weeks scheduled reports:
Looking at the projected reports we appear to be getting plenty of banks and credit card companies. I like to watch what they have to say about debts and consumer spending to give me another indication of broad economic activity. This could also influence some of the FED rate cuts, although not a huge impact. Also will be watching $NFLX (pun intended), could have us move after hours on Thursday. Overall the earnings for me are nothing more than guides for the future business and much of the trading around earnings is completely manipulated and has almost nothing to do with if they report well or not.
Some News Headlines Moving Markets:
Hardest Picture of all time.
Still leaning to greed and I can see that if we creep up in price and also into extreme greed the true sellers could join the party.
Here are my levels to watch on the NQ this week:
Overall we are lingering in between two key levels for me at the moment the 20,625 over head and the 20,371 below. After the clean breaks last week I would not be shocked if we had some indecision early on. With JPOW speaking Monday and the Trump shooting over the weekend, I think markets might take a holding pattern before choosing where it wants to gravitate to. We did open with a gap up that immediately sold right off and cleaned up only to catch a small bid before going flat. With a retest of the trend line break an area of interest we should be able to get there if we break and hold above 20,772. If that is the case then plausible that 21,000 comes into play with a bid to the upside. This would do 2 things, retest that trendline crack as well as clean up that PPI wick off top and potentially trap some longs for another corrective move down. If we were to be unable to break and hold over 20,625 then decisions will be made at the 20,371 level. Another bounce from there is possible as it was strong support however if it does give way 20,270 is the first interesting area and then down into the 20,178 zone.
NVDA shows us that same chart pattern that NQ has been showing and the levels drawn up here could give you some reaction, which, in turn could make the NQ react as well. Keep an eye on MSFT as well as GOOG this week for some more indications on if the flows stay in the Mag 7 or out and back into the small caps like last week.
Streaming Schedule for the Week Ahead:
Monday 0830-1100CST
Tuesday—NO STREAM DUE TO TRAINING
Wednesday—NO STREAM DUE TO TRAINING
Thursday 0830-1100CST
Friday: 0830-1100CST
Stream can be found here TRADECASTER
and on YOUTUBE
As always if you have any questions or comments about this writeup, my trading, the coffee or just want to say hi, please fill out the form below and leave some comments! Everything I share here is for your benefit, if you would like me to add any information or analyze some other charts please let me know as I will only add something if I am trading it otherwise.
